Warren Buffett’s Win Rate?

Many people would assume Warren Buffett’s winning rate is very high. After all, Buffett is the greatest investor on earth with a net worth of $130 billion.

But the truth is, Warren Buffett admitted that he has made many investing mistakes throughout his entire career. He shared in his shareholder letter in 2022: “Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public.”

And out of the hundreds of investments Buffett made, there were only 12 decisions that made a pivotal impact to Berkshire Hathaway’s success today.

In fact, fund manager Mohnish Pabrai, who is very close to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, revealed in his sharing on his YouTube channel: “I think over 58 years, my estimate is that Buffett probably made at least 300-400 important investing decisions and the hit rate was basically like 3% or 4%.”

It shows that investing is never an easy game. Even one of the most brilliant minds on earth like Buffett only has a hit rate of 3-4%. Despite all the deep research he poured into various companies he has invested in, only 12 decisions make a true difference to his financial success.

Often, we tend to overestimate our ability to do individual stock picks. But the more you stay in the market long enough, the more you will be humbled by your mistakes and wrong picks. The more you will grow to appreciate the beauty of ETF investing, which is hassle-free and still able to give you the consistency you need to profit from the market in the long run.

That’s why over the years, I’ve gradually shifted my portfolio to ETF investing, and combine it with options to boost my return. It’s been really rewarding and given me the peaceful profits and returns that I’ve been looking for.

Many students who attended my free masterclass yesterday found it extremely useful. Inside the masterclass, I shared about my Arigato Buffett Options Strategy and how I combine use it to 2X my return. If you manage to attend it yesterday, congratulations!

Due to popular demand for my masterclass and my tight schedule, I have not yet finalised the next masterclass date. So if you want to join the waiting list and be notified immediately when the next masterclass details, make sure to register for your waiting list spot here.  

In the meanwhile, please enjoy learning from Mohnish Pabrai, where he shared a lot of investing wisdom about Buffett! 

Thanks for reading my newsletter all the way to the end!
I really appreciate you and like you very much!

Chloe
Arigato Investor